Every country judged by power, capability and trajectory
Eleven mental models in the manner of Lee Kuan Yew. Choose a lens, then pick a country for its verdict and profile.
Assessed countries
32 totalAlgeria
Algeria holds a strong hand: Africa's largest country, an economy of about US$330 billion, and gas that makes it the third-largest supplier to the European Union. It has played that hand cautiously and narrowly. Hydrocarbons still bring in 90% of its foreign income, as they did a generation ago, and spending has run well ahead of revenue for years. It has poured money into its army, which absorbed 8.83% of GDP in 2025. The next decade turns on whether it can build an economy beyond gas, and settle its rivalry with Morocco, before its energy windfall fades.
Australia
Australia holds a superb hand: a continent of minerals, an economy of about US$2.1 trillion, a AAA rating and one of the cleanest governments in the world. It has played it comfortably rather than well. China buys its resources, with two-way trade of $325 billion in 2025, while it relies on the United States for security and still has no guarantee of the American submarines at the heart of its defence plan. At home, voters are restless: One Nation has overtaken Labor in some polls. The next decade turns on whether it can arm itself to match its region and keep its social consensus while Washington and Beijing pull it in opposite directions.
Botswana
For half a century Botswana was Africa's model of how to turn a mineral into a nation: clean, stable and prudent, with a corruption score still among the best on the continent. That model rested on diamonds, and diamonds are failing it: lab-grown stones have broken prices, the economy shrank in 2024 and 2025, and Moody's and S&P have both cut its rating. Unemployment has climbed to 21%. Its institutions passed the hardest test in 2024, when voters ended 58 years of one-party rule and power changed hands peacefully. The next decade turns on whether that democracy can build an economy beyond diamonds before the money runs out.
Brazil
Brazil holds one of the best hands on the map: food, oil and 93% of the world's niobium, no enemy on its borders, and the world's tenth-largest economy. It plays that hand at half strength. Growth of about 2% will not lift a country where 73% of fifteen-year-olds fall below basic mathematics, and debt has climbed to 82.5% of GDP while the central bank holds rates near 14%. The next decade turns on two things: whether whoever wins the 25 October runoff fixes the public finances, and whether the state can impose order on crime and on its own police.
Cameroon
Cameroon holds a decent hand: ports, oil, forests, bauxite and a young population of about 31 million. It has played it badly for decades. Paul Biya, 92, won an eighth term in 2025 in a vote his main rival rejected, and at least 23 people were killed in the crackdown that followed, according to a civil society group. Corruption is severe, with a score of 26, and both Moody's and Fitch now cite the unresolved succession as a risk. The next decade turns on one question above all: whether power passes from Biya to a successor peacefully, or whether the country's conflicts widen when it does.
Canada
Canada holds a rich hand: a vast, secure, resource-laden country with an economy of about US$2.5 trillion, clean government and a near-AAA rating. Its weakness is that it bet almost everything on one customer, and that customer has turned hostile: 71.7% of its exports still went to the United States in 2025, and Washington declined in July to renew the trade pact that protects them. The Carney government has hit NATO's 2% target and won a decisive vote for unity in Alberta, but jobs are being lost. The next decade turns on whether Canada can diversify its trade and build its own strength faster than its neighbour squeezes it.
China
China holds the strongest hand of any challenger in a century: an economy of about US$21.5 trillion, a trade surplus of almost US$1.2 trillion and most of the world's rare earths. It has played that hand well in industry and badly at home, where investment is falling and property investment has dropped by more than a fifth. Its people are its edge, but there are fewer each year: the population fell for a fourth straight year in 2025. The next decade turns on whether a system run by one man, now purging his own generals, can shift from exports to domestic demand before demography closes the window.
Côte d'Ivoire
Côte d'Ivoire holds a good hand for West Africa: fertile land, a busy coast, and an economy of about US$110 billion growing at around 6% a year. It has played it well since the civil war, finishing its IMF programme with debt judged at low risk of distress, the only country in sub-Saharan Africa with that status, and winning a Fitch upgrade to BB. Its weaknesses are political and agricultural: President Ouattara won a fourth term after his main rivals were barred, and a cocoa price crash has more than halved what farmers are paid. The next decade turns on whether its institutions can manage a succession, and its economy can grow beyond cocoa.
DR Congo
DR Congo holds one of the richest hands on earth: copper and cobalt the world needs, record exports of 1.72 million tonnes of copper in the first half of 2026, and an economy the IMF now ranks fifth in sub-Saharan Africa. It plays that hand from weakness. The state cannot hold its own east, where clashes with the M23 rebels continue despite peace deals signed in Washington and Doha, and its worst Ebola outbreak on record has killed more than 3,900 people. Corruption is among the worst in the world, with a score of 20. The next decade turns on whether Kinshasa can turn mineral rents into a state that governs its whole territory.
Egypt
Egypt holds the world's most valuable shortcut and the Arab world's largest population. Its rulers have long traded on that position for rescue money instead of building a productive economy. Since the Gulf and IMF rescue of 2024 the books have steadied: growth of 5.1%, record reserves of US$57bn and a primary surplus. But interest still swallows two-thirds of revenue. The next decade turns on whether the state lets private firms, rather than the army and megaprojects, drive growth, and whether it can secure Nile water it does not control.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia has the population, the water and the ambition of a regional great power, and it has been building like one. Africa's largest hydropower dam is finished, and the economy is forecast to grow above 9% a year. But it cannot keep the peace inside its own borders. In October 2026 war returned to Tigray, Eritrean troops crossed the border, and insurgencies continue in Amhara and Oromia. The next decade turns on whether Addis Ababa can trade force for a political settlement at home, and its push for the sea for peace with its neighbours, before conflict consumes the gains.
France
France holds a hand few middle powers can match: nuclear weapons, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, a US$3.6 trillion economy and armed forces that are being rebuilt. It is playing that hand badly at home. Public debt has reached 119% of GDP with a deficit of 5.4%, two agencies have cut it to A+, and a hung parliament has made budgets a yearly crisis. The next decade turns on two things: whether any government can win a mandate to cut the deficit, and whether the April 2027 election, with the National Rally leading the polls, produces stability or deeper division.
Germany
Germany still holds a strong hand: an economy of about US$5.5 trillion, a AAA credit rating and clean government, ranked 10th of 182 on corruption. It has played it poorly for a decade, and the bill has arrived: the economy grew 0.0% in 2024 and 0.2% in 2025, industry has shed over 341,000 jobs since 2019, and schools have slid to the OECD average. The Merz government has at last changed course on defence and investment. The next decade turns on whether it reforms pensions and costs fast enough to revive growth before voters, now giving the AfD 29% nationally, lose patience with the centre.
Ghana
Ghana holds a good hand: gold, cocoa, oil and a stable democracy of about 36 million people. Four years after defaulting, it has played its way back: the IMF programme delivered substantial stabilization gains, inflation has fallen from 22.9% in 2024 to a forecast 4.8% this year, and Fitch has raised its rating to B. The recovery rests heavily on gold, whose exports rose 49% in the first half of 2026, while illegal mining eats into cocoa land and the rule of law. The next decade turns on whether Ghana can keep its fiscal discipline after the IMF leaves and turn a commodity boom into lasting jobs.
India
India holds the best long-run hand of any large country: the world's biggest population, a median age of about 29 and an economy of about US$4 trillion growing at about 7% a year. It is playing that hand better than at any time since independence, with growth of 7.8% in the latest quarter and a record defence budget. But it is converting people into productive workers too slowly, and only a quarter of urban women are in the labour force. The next decade turns on whether it can build the factories and the state capacity to employ its young before the demographic window narrows, while keeping both China and Pakistan in check.
Indonesia
Indonesia holds one of Asia's great hands: 288 million people, an economy of about US$1.5 trillion growing steadily at around 5%, and command of the sea lanes between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Under President Prabowo it is playing that hand less carefully than before. Moody's and Fitch have both cut their outlooks to negative, Fitch citing policy uncertainty and fiscal risks, including concerns about the new Danantara fund, and a fuel price rise of more than 30% has brought protesters back to the streets. The next decade turns on whether Jakarta keeps the fiscal discipline that underpinned its rise while trying to grow faster.
Iran
Iran holds a strong hand by geography: a large country of 93 million astride the Strait of Hormuz, where its threats alone have pushed oil above $100. It has played that hand to ruin. Eight months of war with the United States and Israel have killed its supreme leader, left his successor unseen, and shrunk the economy by an IMF-estimated 7.6% this year with inflation near 79%. Before the war, thousands died as the state crushed nationwide protests that began over a sliding currency. What decides its next decade is whether the war ends in a settlement that lets the economy breathe, and whether a regime that rules by force can keep doing so.
Israel
Israel holds a weak hand by geography, a small state with no strategic depth among enemies, and plays it with exceptional skill. Its armed forces, funded at about 7.8% of GDP, have fought on several fronts at once, including a war with Iran, while the economy kept growing and unemployment stayed near 3%. The cost is rising: a ratings downgrade to Baa1, a genocide case at the ICJ that it contests, and a society divided over the leadership that presided over the 7 October 2023 failure. The next decade turns on whether the 27 October election produces a government that can turn military advantage into lasting settlements.
Italy
Italy holds a middling hand and is finally playing it steadily: a US$2.7 trillion economy at the heart of the Mediterranean, with a government that has stayed in office and cut the deficit to 3.1% of GDP, winning rating upgrades for it. But the two numbers that decide its future are getting worse. Public debt reached 137.1% of GDP, and only 355,000 babies were born in 2025, the fewest on record, in a country whose median age is near 49. Its next decade turns on whether it can raise growth above 1% before an ageing, shrinking workforce makes the debt unpayable.
Japan
Japan holds a strong but shrinking hand: an economy of about US$4.3 trillion, some of the best-schooled teenagers in the world and orderly, fairly clean government. On security it is at last playing that hand with resolve: voters gave Prime Minister Takaichi's party 316 of 465 lower-house seats, and her government has passed a record defence budget above ¥9 trillion. On the problem that matters most it is losing: births fell to 671,236 in 2025, a record low, and fertility to 1.14. The next decade turns on whether Japan can find workers, through machines or migrants, faster than it loses them, and stand up to China without losing the trade it lives on.
Kenya
Kenya is East Africa's hub. The port, the banks, the diplomats and the region's most enterprising workforce all pass through Mombasa and Nairobi. It grows steadily at 4–5% a year and has stepped back from the debt cliff. But the state taxes heavily, spends poorly and polices harshly, and the young people who forced the 2024 finance bill's withdrawal are not convinced it serves them. The next decade turns on whether the August 2027 election passes peacefully, and whether the government can fix the public finances without another round of protest and bloodshed.
Libya
Libya sits on Africa's largest proven oil reserves and a long Mediterranean coast, with fewer than 8 million people to share the wealth. It has squandered that hand. The country has been split since 2014 between a government in Tripoli and an eastern administration backed by Khalifa Haftar, and its corruption score of 13 is among the worst in the world. Oil output has recovered to a 13-year high, and in August 2026 the rival camps signed a deal to hold elections within two years. The next decade turns on whether that deal produces one government, or joins the long list of promised elections that never happened.
Nigeria
Nigeria has the numbers to be Africa's great power: about 240 million people, the continent's largest oil output and a market that sets the weather for West Africa. For decades it wasted them on fuel subsidies, a fixed currency and a state that cannot keep order. Since 2023 the money has been repaired: the subsidy is gone, the naira floats and reserves are at an 18-year high. The people have not yet felt it: 63% live in poverty, and bandits and jihadists hold sway across parts of the north. The next decade turns on whether the January 2027 election keeps the reforms, and whether the state can win back a monopoly on force.
Russia
Russia holds a hand of raw assets, not modern strengths: the largest territory on earth, most of the world's mined palladium, oil and gas the world still buys, and with the United States about 86% of all nuclear weapons. It is playing that hand badly. A war chosen in 2022 has turned it into a junior partner of China and pushed defence spending to a planned 17.1 trillion roubles in 2027, while growth has stalled near 1%. Births are at their lowest in two centuries and corruption scores are among the world's worst. The next decade turns on whether it can end the war on terms it can live with before the economy and the population run down further.
Rwanda
Rwanda is the closest thing in Africa to the LKY model: a small, landlocked, resource-poor state that has made order, clean administration and relentless execution its edge. Poverty has fallen to 27%, and it ranks first in Africa on the rule of law. Its weaknesses are the model's own. Everything rests on one man with no visible successor, dissent is not tolerated, and its security doctrine has pulled it deep into eastern Congo at the cost of Western aid and goodwill. The next decade turns on whether the Washington accord lets it trade military reach for economic access, and whether the system can outlive Kagame.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia holds a rich hand: an economy of about US$1.3 trillion, a young population and fiscal buffers that let Fitch keep it at A+ through the Iran war. It has played the war competently, rerouting oil to the Red Sea and rebuilding output to 8.4 million barrels a day by September, but the economy will still shrink this year and the deficit has swollen to an estimated 245 billion riyals. The gigaproject era is ending in costly cancellations, and Houthi attacks on its airports killed 19 people this month. The next decade turns on whether it can turn oil money into a skilled, productive workforce before the oil age wanes, and buy security in a neighbourhood at war.
South Africa
South Africa holds the strongest hand in Africa: the continent's largest economy, most of the world's platinum and chrome, and courts that still check power. It played that hand badly for fifteen years and is now in early repair. The lights are back on, debt has stopped rising and the rating agencies are moving up, but growth near 1% cannot dent unemployment of 33.6%. The next decade turns on two things: whether the state can restore order in its police and municipalities, and whether a quarrelsome coalition keeps reforming long enough for jobs to follow.
South Korea
South Korea turned a poor, divided peninsula into a rich industrial power, and it still holds a strong hand: an economy the IMF puts at about US$2.2 trillion in 2026, an AA rating, and armed forces funded at 2.6% of GDP. Its institutions passed a severe test when a court sentenced former president Yoon Suk Yeol to life in prison for the 2024 martial-law attempt. Its great weakness is demographic: the fertility rate, the world's lowest, has only just begun to recover, to 0.8 in 2025. The next decade turns on whether that recovery lasts, and whether Seoul can stay secure between a nuclear-armed North, China and a more demanding America.
Turkey
Turkey holds one of the strongest hands in its region: 88 million people, an economy of about US$1.8 trillion and the straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Erdoğan has played it shrewdly abroad, building an arms industry that exported over US$10 billion in 2025, and, belatedly, sensibly at home, where tight money has brought inflation down to 29.73%. But he is hollowing out the institutions that make power last: his main rival is on trial, and Turkey's corruption score has fallen to 31. The next decade turns on whether the peace with the PKK holds, and whether a strong state can prosper with a weakened rule of law.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE has turned a small, exposed stretch of desert and oil into a rich and well-run state, with sovereign foreign assets of about 164% of GDP and one of the cleanest governments outside the West. The 2026 Iran war has tested that model hard: Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at it, and Fitch expects the economy to shrink 4.8% this year. Its buffers, its air defences and its Fujairah export route have held so far. The next decade turns on whether it can remain a safe hub in a dangerous neighbourhood and keep attracting the foreign workers and capital its model depends on.
United Kingdom
Britain holds a better hand than its politics suggests: a US$4.3 trillion economy, nuclear weapons, a skilled English-speaking workforce, clean institutions and the closest ties of any country to Washington. It has played that hand poorly, changing prime minister again in 2026, with growth stuck near 1% and net debt at 94% of GDP, the highest since the early 1960s. The next decade turns on whether the new Burnham government can do what its predecessors could not, raise growth and pay for defence at the same time, and whether the Union holds as nationalists lead in Scotland and Wales.
United States
The United States still holds the strongest hand in the world: an economy of about US$32.6 trillion, secure borders on two oceans, and with Russia about 86% of the world's nuclear weapons. It is playing that hand erratically. Its own Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed by emergency decree, a war with Iran has left the Strait of Hormuz largely shut for months, and the deficit is heading for 7.4% of GDP. Its courts and elections still check its leaders, and that capacity to correct itself is its deepest strength. The next decade turns on whether it restores fiscal discipline and keeps its allies close while it competes with China.