United States

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

No great power has a better map. The United States spans a continent between two oceans, with friendly neighbours on its only land borders and no rival able to threaten it by land. Its neighbours are also its biggest customers: Mexico was its top goods trading partner in 2025, at US$872.8 billion, followed by Canada¹⁵. It has vast farmland, large reserves of energy and minerals, and the world's most navigable river system. Even a war in the Gulf hurts it less than its allies and rivals: the Hormuz closure has raised the price of oil¹², but the United States is far less exposed to Gulf supply than its allies and rivals. A major strength.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is large, relatively young for a rich country at a median age of about 39, and still growing². Its universities and companies draw talent from everywhere, and that has long been its edge. That edge is narrowing. Population growth fell to 1.8 million in the year to June 2025, about half the previous year's pace, because the foreign-born population grew 52% less amid tighter immigration policy¹⁴. The labour market is cooling: unemployment rose to 4.2% in September 2026⁴. Skilled, mobile and inventive people remain a major asset; the inflow that renewed them has slowed.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits are a mix of great strengths and costly weaknesses. Americans are entrepreneurial, litigious and willing to take risks, and the culture rewards invention more than almost anywhere. Against that, violence is high for a rich country: the homicide rate was about 5.8 per 100,000 people in 2023¹³. Trust in public institutions has eroded, and Transparency International, in its own assessment, warns that actions targeting independent voices and undermining judicial independence raise serious concerns²¹. LKY admired the energy and criticised the permissiveness. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, the record is mixed. The economy kept growing, at 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026¹¹, and the administration has used tariffs to extract trade concessions. But its central tool was ruled unlawful: in February 2026 the Supreme Court held that emergency powers do not authorise the president to impose tariffs¹⁰. The war with Iran that began in late February has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran says it will stay closed until its conditions are met¹². The deficit reached US$2 trillion in the first eleven months of fiscal 2026⁸. Bold, but erratic and costly.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The rule of law is strong but slipping. The United States scored 64 on Transparency International's 2025 index, its lowest ever, ranking 29th of 182⁹. On the World Justice Project's 2025 index it ranked 27th with a score of 0.68, down 2.8%¹⁹. The courts still bind the executive: the Supreme Court struck down the president's emergency tariffs¹⁰. Transparency International says weaker enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act signals tolerance for corrupt business practices²¹. Violent crime is high for a rich country¹³. Strong institutions under strain.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

The country is held together by a strong national identity and a constitution almost everyone accepts, but it is bitterly divided over who governs and how. Immigration policy has become a sharp dividing line, and the crackdown has cut population growth sharply¹⁴. The November 2026 midterms are framed as a referendum on the president, with both chambers in the balance¹⁶. Disputes are still settled in courts and at the ballot box rather than in the streets¹⁰. Comparable measures of polarisation are contested, hence low confidence. Deeply split, but the system still contains the split.

Why does the world need this country?

The world revolves around the United States more than around any other country. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$32.6 trillion, with income per head of about US$95,000³. Its total goods trade is vast, led by Mexico, Canada and China¹⁵. Its tariff decisions move every other economy in this atlas, and its war with Iran has set the world's oil price¹². It funds and leads the main Western alliance, and with Russia it holds about 86% of the world's nuclear weapons¹⁷. The indispensable power, for better and worse.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: a growing economy and sustainable public finances; the deficit is running above US$2 trillion and Fitch expects it to reach 7.4% of GDP^8,7. It also needs open sea lanes, now disrupted in Hormuz¹². Want: to stay ahead of China in technology and military power, to rebalance trade on better terms¹⁸, and to make allies carry more of the defence burden. Fear: losing the technology race to China, a Gulf war that drags on¹², a debt problem that limits its choices, and division at home.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

The United States sits at the centre of the world's main alliance system, and no rival can match its network. But it is using that position to extract terms rather than to bind partners. It has pressed friends and rivals alike with tariffs, then settled through truces, including one with China extended in September 2026 to 10 January¹⁸. The Iran war has absorbed attention and kept oil prices high for allies in Asia and Europe¹². Partners are hedging more openly. Still the strongest hand in the system, but playing it in ways that are costing goodwill.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

No other military comes close. The administration's defence budget for fiscal 2027 is about US$1.5 trillion including reconciliation funding, although Congress had not enacted it by the start of the fiscal year²⁰. With Russia it holds about 86% of the world's nuclear weapons¹⁷. It projects power globally, but the Iran war has shown the limits of force: months after it began, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and traffic is a fraction of normal¹². Unmatched in capability, though not able to impose outcomes cheaply.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Steady, with warning lights. The IMF expects growth of 2.3% a year in 2026 and 2027³, and output grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026¹¹. But the labour market is cooling: unemployment rose to 4.2% in September⁴. The fiscal path is the main drag. Fitch expects the general government deficit to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and stay there in 2027, the highest of any AA-rated country⁷, and Moody's removed the last top rating in 2025⁶. Growing, but borrowing heavily to do so.