Algeria

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Algeria's map is a major asset. It is Africa's largest country, sits across the Mediterranean from southern Europe, and holds large reserves of gas and oil. Its pipelines and LNG terminals make it the third-largest gas supplier to the EU, after Norway and the United States, and it exported 49 bcm of gas in 2025⁴. The vast desert south borders the unstable Sahel, including Mali, where an armed conflict has run for more than a decade¹⁰. A strategic, energy-rich position with a long, hard-to-police southern frontier.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Algeria has a young population of about 48 million, with a median age near 29^1,2, and not enough work for it. The modelled unemployment rate is about 11.6%⁹. The economy depends on hydrocarbons for 90% of foreign income⁴, a sector that employs few people. Reliable, current data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A large, young workforce with too few productive jobs.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean, predictable government are weak. Algeria scored 34 on Transparency International's 2025 index, unchanged, ranking 109th of 182 countries¹¹. Public spending has exceeded revenue by an average of 7.8% of GDP in 2020-24, even when energy prices were high, which points to a spending pattern rather than a one-off shock⁵. Data on work norms and social trust is thin, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's government has kept the state stable but has not changed the economy. Hydrocarbons still account for 90% of foreign income, unchanged from a generation ago⁴. The 2026 budget assumes oil at US$70 a barrel, while the IMF puts the price Algeria needs to balance its books near US$119⁵. Abroad it has been more pragmatic: in July 2026 it restored ambassadors and reopened airspace with Mali, ending a year-long rift¹⁰. Steady, but without reform.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Algeria is a strong security state. The army and the security services dominate public life, and the state controls its territory. Its military spending, 8.83% of GDP in 2025, is among the highest shares in the world⁶. Corruption is significant, with a score of 34 and a rank of 109th of 182¹¹. Political competition and civil liberties are limited, which keeps order at a cost that is hard to measure, hence low confidence. Firm order, weak institutions.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Algerian society is held together by a strong national identity forged in the independence war, and by state spending funded by hydrocarbons^4,5. That second pillar depends on prices: spending has exceeded revenue by 7.8% of GDP on average in recent years⁵. With modelled unemployment above 11%⁹, the risk is a renewed wave of discontent among the young if money runs short. Reliable survey data on trust is limited, hence low confidence. Stable, as long as the money lasts.

Why does the world need this country?

Algeria matters to Europe as a gas supplier: it ranks third, after Norway and the United States, and Spain is among its largest customers⁴. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$332 billion³. It is a significant regional military power⁶ and a party to the Western Sahara dispute⁷. Its global weight is limited by an economy that depends on one sector and a foreign policy focused on its own neighbourhood.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: steady gas and oil revenue, which supplies 90% of its foreign income⁴; prices high enough to cover a budget that needs oil near US$119⁵; and a secure southern border¹⁰. Want: a Western Sahara settlement through direct talks between Morocco and the Polisario Front⁷; a larger share of Europe's gas market⁴; and stable relations with the Sahel states¹⁰. Fear: a fall in energy prices; Moroccan autonomy becoming the accepted basis for Western Sahara^7,8; and jihadist spillover from Mali, whose junta has accused it of backing rebels, which Algeria denies¹⁰.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Algeria guards its independence and balances between powers. Its main rivalry is with Morocco over Western Sahara. The UN Security Council's Resolution 2797 names Algeria as one of four parties to talks⁷, while Algeria's foreign minister says the talks should be between Morocco and the Polisario Front⁷. With its southern neighbour Mali, it has just ended a year-long rift that began when it shot down a Malian drone near the border¹⁰. Its gas gives it leverage with Europe⁴. Detailed, sourced data on its great-power alignments was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Algeria is one of Africa's strongest military powers and is spending heavily to stay so. SIPRI puts its military spending at 8.83% of GDP in 2025, up from 4.06% in 2022⁶, one of the highest shares in the world. It has shown it will use force at its borders, shooting down a Malian armed drone in 2025¹⁰. It has no nuclear weapons. Readiness data is limited, hence medium confidence. Strong and growing, at a heavy fiscal cost.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Algeria is growing steadily but not changing. The IMF records growth of 3.7% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025, and forecasts 3.8% for 2026³. Gross government debt is rising, from 48.1% of GDP in 2024 to a forecast 59.1% in 2027³, because spending persistently exceeds revenue⁵. Gas exports have recovered to 49 bcm⁴, but the economy's dependence on hydrocarbons is unchanged. Stable, on borrowed time.